logo

Perhaps one of the best ways baseball handicappers can have fun and make a profit, is playing baseball season win totals.

One, because of the enormous amount of games MLB teams play during a regular season, and two because of the quantity statistics in baseball, both which make the win totals a good value for any baseball handicapper.

However, as win totals gain in popularity, sportsbooks are becoming more savvy, often times baiting traps for unsuspecting bettors. With that we have assembled a list of a few pitfalls MLB handicappers need to avoid when wagering on win total props.

First, bettors should never bet with emotion, or get sucked into wagering on teams that are heavily backed by the general public. Not saying never, but rather focusing on betting on teams based only on what they feel they can really do performance-wise, not what they or fans want to happen.

This is why often times, sports books will use very heavy favored teams like the San Francisco Giants, Yankees, Red Sox and Cardinals, to lure the general public in with a higher over. In most cases the public falls right into their trap, nearly always betting the over in most cases — no matter what.

Serious bettors, however,  need to be able to spot this snag, and unless the over really represents value, avoid betting the over on these teams in any circumstance.

Next, MLB handicappers need to pay attention to the strength of a team's division, and never assume last year’s production is sustainable.

While it should be obvious that a weak division is going to have a massive impact on the outcome of a team’s season regardless of how good that team is or isn't, it is not a given that other teams in that same division have not improved significantly during the offseason. Therefore, it is important for baseball bettors to look carefully at the strength of the teams in a particular division when betting on win totals, as those teams will play each other 72 times during the season and the impact can be tremendous.

Meanwhile, a team could gain more wins without significant improvements, if a former powerhouse team is likely to have a rough year, or are is a team from the previous season that may not be able to sustain its record to an mind-boggling hot streak.

Finally, handicappers need to pay attention to every player on a team's roster, and always avoid overreacting to high profile moves.

In baseball, a player batting seventh can get as many at-bats during a year as the high profile player who is hitting cleanup, which means MLB bettors need to spend just as much time evaluating the entire roster, as they do evaluating a team's stars. The same goes for a team's rotation, especially if it trades away or picks up a top -quality free agent.   

When a team makes a big move, bettors can get overly excited, or panic with the loss of a big free agent.

Baseball a team game, and one player move rarely has a huge impact, especially on win totals.

So, before MLB handicappers assume that one move will make a major difference, they need to look at it closely, as often times a team lets a free agent go because they have a god alternative, and pick up a player to sometimes just add depth to an already weaker position.